A Temporary Lull?

The Health Work Force Institute was created in 2004 to address the coming health work force shortage. A huge increase in demand for health care as the baby boomers age, coupled with a large wave of retirements from the health care industry made for the perfect storm. No one could foresee the economic storm that hit the U.S. in the fall of 2008. Almost overnight, hospitals saw vacancy rates drop as retirements were delayed and staffing cut back.

Over the past seven years, the Institute has conducted an annual survey of hospitals in Washington State. Every year, vacancy rates moved up in positions ranging from Certified Nursing Assistants to specialized physicians. The trend continued through the fall surveying in 2008, but anecdotally, we anticipate a lull in the trend. Who could have imagined a year ago that nurses would even be struggling to find work?

A recent study published on the Health Affairs website, by Peter Buerhaus of Vanderbilt University School of Nursing, makes the case that the lull is only temporary. The shortage of nurses, and other health care workers, will come back with a vengeance in the next decade with the eventual retirement of the baby boomers.

Buerhaus and his co-authors make another interesting point. Over the past two years, younger nurses have been entering the work force at a much higher rate than predicted. This means the severity and the timing of the nursing shortage may change. While this might have been a bellwether for the end of nursing shortage, the current economic situation has derailed progress.

Currently, newly graduated nurses are reporting difficulty finding employment. Hospitals, and other health care facilities, are still hiring nurses, but have significantly reduced positions available for newly minted nurses.What remains to be seen is what will happen to these new nurses and will this impact the reputation health care positions have gained as well paying with available employment?